Great post! I like the point that our values will have to shift so we celebrate parents, even mediocre parents, much more than we do. I wonder whether we also need a more generally optimistic culture. Even relatively optimistic countries, like China, have declining birth rates, so it can’t be the whole story. But maybe it’s part of it?
Adverse childhood experiences are associated with reduced fertility intention. Reducing the prevalence of ACEs might also help address the declining fertility rate, in addition to having a whole host of other health benefits.
One thing I've been thinking about is shifting women's fertile window by a decade. Career and education for women are associated with delayed childbearing and reduced TFR (in part due to age-related infertility). What if we as a society subsidized egg freezing and normalized having children in the 40s when women/families are financially more stable and have had more time to find a suitable partner? Perhaps this would help women have their stated desired number of children. Of course, we should also make it easier/more affordable for people to have children in their 20s and 30s as well, if that's what they want to do.
> “I think what we need instead is for society to valorize parents and parenting, the way American society valorizes veterans. No-one is forced to join the armed forces, or stigmatized for choosing a different career path. […] (Again, this shouldn’t require stigmatizing anyone who makes different life choices.)”
I wonder if the negative stigma is what really makes the difference here. We valorize veterans, but it’s not as if this makes enlisting *that* popular. On the other hand, if we were thrusted into another world war, there might be a largely negative stigma against not enlisting (and a greater stigma against dodging the draft). Wouldn’t this be far more powerful? Obviously, I’d like to think we can improve things without a negative stigma, but I’m unsure.
What do you think about Robin Hanson’s ideas in this space? He suggests relatively huge subsidies for parents, on the order of the actual economic value added to society by creating a new person (so millions of dollars?).
I admit I’m forgetting some of the exact details of his suggested implementation which definitely matter.
Great post! I like the point that our values will have to shift so we celebrate parents, even mediocre parents, much more than we do. I wonder whether we also need a more generally optimistic culture. Even relatively optimistic countries, like China, have declining birth rates, so it can’t be the whole story. But maybe it’s part of it?
Adverse childhood experiences are associated with reduced fertility intention. Reducing the prevalence of ACEs might also help address the declining fertility rate, in addition to having a whole host of other health benefits.
One thing I've been thinking about is shifting women's fertile window by a decade. Career and education for women are associated with delayed childbearing and reduced TFR (in part due to age-related infertility). What if we as a society subsidized egg freezing and normalized having children in the 40s when women/families are financially more stable and have had more time to find a suitable partner? Perhaps this would help women have their stated desired number of children. Of course, we should also make it easier/more affordable for people to have children in their 20s and 30s as well, if that's what they want to do.
> “I think what we need instead is for society to valorize parents and parenting, the way American society valorizes veterans. No-one is forced to join the armed forces, or stigmatized for choosing a different career path. […] (Again, this shouldn’t require stigmatizing anyone who makes different life choices.)”
I wonder if the negative stigma is what really makes the difference here. We valorize veterans, but it’s not as if this makes enlisting *that* popular. On the other hand, if we were thrusted into another world war, there might be a largely negative stigma against not enlisting (and a greater stigma against dodging the draft). Wouldn’t this be far more powerful? Obviously, I’d like to think we can improve things without a negative stigma, but I’m unsure.
What do you think about Robin Hanson’s ideas in this space? He suggests relatively huge subsidies for parents, on the order of the actual economic value added to society by creating a new person (so millions of dollars?).
I admit I’m forgetting some of the exact details of his suggested implementation which definitely matter.
See footnote 1! :-)
Serves me right for skipping the footnotes!
I should remember never to skip yours in particular, they are always good.