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Jake Zuehl's avatar

I'm so glad this paper has found a happy (and well-deserved) home! Congrats, Richard! I'd say it is pretty much mandatory reading for anyone interested in these issues.

I'm a robust deontologist (in your sense), and, unlike many deontologists, I'm perfectly comfortable with the theoretical vocabulary ("preferability," etc.) in which the paradox is formulated. So I need to think about how I want to respond in substantive terms. My initial, very tentative inclination is to reject (4), the claim that a successful prevention is vastly preferable to a failed prevention, where "vastly preferable" means more preferable than no gratuitous murders is to one such murder. I don't think that claim is as obvious as you suggest.

In general, I find it plausible that everyone (deontologists included) should be indifferent (or close to indifferent) between (A) an already attempted murder proving a success and (B) an accidental death. (If I could save one of two people from death, and I know that one of them was put in harm's way as an attempt at murder but I don't know which, I don't think I should be willing to pay much of a moral penalty to find out which is which so I can prevent the murder instead of the accident). So: yes, we should strongly prefer that the prevention succeed instead of fail, just as we should, in general, strongly prefer that five deaths be avoided. But I don't think the deontologist needs to be committed to thinking that the difference between a failed and a successful preventative killing is as big as (let alone bigger than) the difference between one gratuitous murder and zero, any more than they need be committed to thinking that five deaths are worse than one murder.

By the way, something like this may help interpret what Kieran Setiya had in mind with the remark in "Must Consequentialists Kill?" (cited in your fn. 41) about the "damage" already being done once the five murders have been attempted such that they can only be prevented by killing an additional one. Maybe he was thinking that the specifically 'moral' damage, the damage that makes a murder dispreferable to an accidental death, is already done once the murder is attempted. There is, of course, additional 'damage,' of a different sort, done when the five actually die!

It now occurs to me, though, that you could respond by adjusting the case to: one killing to prevent five other killings, which would succeed if attempted, from even being attempted (planned, conceived, desired...). The move I just made won't work against a case like that. (Apologies if you discuss this in the paper -- I haven't given the final version the careful attention it deserves). And it seems right that a successful prevention of that kind is vastly preferable (in your sense) to a failed prevention.

I have another possible reply in mind, turning on the difference between a preference for success conditional on the attempt, and a preference for a successful attempt. But it needs more thought, and this is already a very long comment!

Anyway, congrats again!

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Corsaren's avatar

Hi Richard! I’ve been thinking about this paper a lot for the past couple weeks, and while I think the argument is pretty ingenious, I do have some objections. Rather than list them all out—since I’ve managed to scribble a several thousand words in my notes app at this point—I’ll stick to the two most interesting ones:

#1 Transitivity: you mention on p.194 that there’s no reason for us to not assume transitivity in this case, but I can think of at least one. In premise (2) you state “If an agent can bring about just W1 or W2…” which seems to establish that when we first demonstrate W2>W1, those two are the only worlds that the protagonist can “bring about” — yet once we introduce W3 (Failed Prevention), this is no longer the case. I think a deontologist could argue that it is improper to apply transitivity across these cases since they involve different world-models.

To clarify what I mean, it’s helpful to spell out what “bring about” entails—which seems underspecified as of now. To me, “bring about” cannot refer to just any set of outcomes that succeeds the Protagonist’s actions, but only those that are a *necessary consequence* of those actions (A1 -> W1). If I shoot a man and he dies, but then a day later the President bombs Iran, I did not “bring about” the action-inclusive world-state of the US bombing Iran, whereas I did “bring about” the man’s death. Now, technically, any action can be interrupted before it results in its intended outcome (e.g., the bullet could undergo spontaneous quantum tunneling just before it hits the man). So for the man’s death to be a “necessary consequence” of my pulling the trigger, it essentially means that we must be modeling a world where certain facts about what happens after I pull the trigger are fixed. We assume, for example, that we are in a world-model where the gun fires correctly, that the bullet will hit him, that it will damage his vital organs, that medical staff will not be around to save his life, etc.

Therefore, when we say W1 > W2 in (3), this must mean that, if the Protagonist’s chosen action was A2 (Killing), the outcome would be W2 (Five Saved); i.e., that we are currently occupying a world-model where W2 would be the *necessary result* of the Protagonist’s choice to select A2 over A1. But once you invoke W3 and allow for the Protagonist’s same action to NOT cause W2, then you are now leveraging two different world-models.

This is not a trivial concern: I think it is reasonable for a deontologist to insist that, given their primary concern is actions, they need only express preferences that are consistent within a single world-model and that transitivity across world-models is improper. They may have perfectly consistent preferences within any given world-model, and the strength of those preferences over action-inclusive world-states within a world-model (i.e., the difference between W1, W2, and W4) may, in fact, be weaker than their preferences about which world-model they are occupying (i.e., the difference between W2 vs. W3), and this is all totally fine because they are different kinds of preferences about fundamentally different kinds of questions. Transitivity does not apply.

That being said, I don’t think this objection is TOO damaging—as you note in footnote 40, the argument can potentially still go through if we ignore the failed prevention and instead apply a moral datum for One Killing to Prevent Five >> Six Killings, which I believe can both live in the same world-model.

This next objection, however, is more serious.

#2 (7) is false: you define “>>” as being a preference strictly stronger than the degree to which a neutral deontological bystander would disprefer one generic killing. This definition holds for (4): we add five generic killings from W2 to W3, and five is more than one. But in W4 we have not added one generic killing—we have added a killing *by the protagonist*, and that is different under deontology, even in an agent-neutral sense! If it wasn’t, then (3) would already contradict itself! To assume that a rights violation which is part of the action is equivalent to a rights violation that is part of the outcome is to make an implicitly consequentialist assumption.

Part of the confusion is that you refer to W4 as “Six Killings” when in reality it is more like “Protagonist's Gratuitous Killing and Five Other Killings”. A true “Six Killings” universe would be that, say, the Protagonist chooses not to kill the innocent person, but then because they remain alive, the other killers decide to kill that person too (maybe they get a sixth guy to do it so that we keep the nice 1 person -> 1 killing correspondence). If we call that world W5, then we can ask how a deontologist would rank W5 vs. W1 and W4.

Now, the difference in preference between W1 and W5 is, of course, one generic killing, but in that case, your argument assumes that W4 ~ W5, which is not true. In fact, by (2), W5 > W4, since in W4 the Protagonist has acted wrongly by killing, but in W5 they have not. And so we have W1 >_1 W5 > W4 (where >_1 means a preference whose strength is equal to one generic killing); this means that W1 >> W4, so (7) is false.

I think it might be tempting to treat the above as an alternative way of deriving (6), but it's not; what I'm showing is that, for a deontologist, the difference between W1 and W4 is not equal to one generic killing; it is, in fact, strictly more than that because they care about the action part of the act-inclusive world-state MORE than the outcome part of it.

I have more thoughts here (e.g., that if you try and rescue (7) as you do in footnote 39, then (4) fails; and if you try and rescue both, then (2)/(3) fails), but I’ll stop here since I’m at 1,000+ words. I also realize that these two objections are sort of incompatible (the second objection invokes transitivity between comparisons across world-models [W1 vs. W5] vs. comparisons between world-states within a world-model [W5 vs. W4]), but I could see a deontologist taking up either of these depending on their disposition. If you bother reading all of this then I’d love to hear your thoughts! I really liked the paper even if I did have my qualms.

EDITED: I had (3) flipped as W2 > W1 in an earlier version of this because I was trying to analyze the counterfactual. Corrected!

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